Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5032 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 5032 SAV 07:26 → JFK 09:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 342 SAV 14:23 → JFK 16:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5032 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 07:26	JFK 09:28	8%	4%	3.6%	91%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 11:19	JFK 13:18	19%	8%	3.6%	84%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 17:47	JFK 19:52	32%	18%	7.9%	75%
B6 342 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 14:23	JFK 16:29	35%	22%	4.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON