tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3110 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3110 American SAV 05:57 MIA 07:37 10% 5% 1.8% no record
MQ 4166 Envoy SAV 20:38 MIA 22:26 26% 8% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 18m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 19m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 10:08 → MIA 12:19AA 2594 5h 19m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAV 08:27 → CLT 09:47AA 5676 · flown by PSA 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 10:57 → MIA 12:58AA 2768 4h 31m 90% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 5h 28m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAV 07:26 → JFK 09:28DL 5032 · flown by Endeavor 1h 40m New York JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514 6h 56m 95% 68%
DeltaDetails → SAV 06:18 → LGA 08:23DL 5457 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m New York LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538 8h 06m 98% 68%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:11 → DCA 09:10AA 5146 · flown by PSA 3h 25m Washington DCA 12:35 → MIA 15:17AA 1627 8h 06m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON