Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3739 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3739 SBA 05:32 → LAS 06:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2117 SBA 15:24 → LAS 16:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3739 Southwest	SBA 05:32	LAS 06:52	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2319 Southwest	SBA 10:07	LAS 11:25	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2117 Southwest	SBA 15:24	LAS 16:44	21%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON