tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1009 United Flight history → SBA 13:53 ORD 20:06 41% 16% 0.9% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SBA 18:48 → PHX 20:40AA 3900 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 23:30 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 3236 8h 18m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958 9h 01m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 6h 49m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Los Angeles LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 6h 35m 91% 65%
UnitedDetails → SBA 14:27 → LAX 15:24UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Los Angeles LAX 16:40 → ORD 22:47UA 2780 6h 20m 91% 64%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258 8h 01m 96% 62%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 6h 35m 83% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON