Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4299 at 19:24, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4299 Southwest	SBA 19:24	SMF 20:53	15%	7%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 26m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	6h 54m	98%	85%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 09:27 → SMF 11:13UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	5h 36m	98%	82%
United Details →	SBA 14:27 → LAX 15:24UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m	91%	78%
Alaska Details →	SBA 07:35 → PDX 09:58AS 2178 · flown by Horizon	55m Portland	PDX 10:53 → SMF 12:20AS 653	4h 45m	87%	76%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	3h 38m San Francisco	SFO 18:46 → SMF 19:55UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest	5h 57m	98%	75%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	52m San Francisco	SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25UA 5220 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m	85%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON