Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1511 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1511 SDF 05:06 → CLT 06:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3219 SDF 18:04 → CLT 19:38 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1511 American	SDF 05:06	CLT 06:47	8%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 11:45	CLT 13:21	12%	5%	1.0%	95%
AA 2413 American	SDF 07:57	CLT 09:25	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2296 American	SDF 15:40	CLT 17:13	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2039 American	SDF 20:15	CLT 21:44	24%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 3219 American Flight history →	SDF 18:04	CLT 19:38	25%	8%	1.3%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON