tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 2073 at 05:51, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2073 American Flight history → SDF 05:51 MIA 08:29 10% 4% 0.9% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 4h 57m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 57m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:44 → PHL 08:53AA 4750 · flown by Republic 59m Philadelphia PHL 09:52 → MIA 12:57AA 1985 6h 13m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:05 → EWR 08:23UA 3594 · flown by Republic 49m Newark EWR 09:12 → MIA 12:30UA 2785 6h 25m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:08 → DCA 09:03AA 4549 · flown by Republic 3h 32m Washington DCA 12:35 → MIA 15:17AA 1627 8h 09m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:05 → ORD 06:50AA 4413 · flown by Republic 2h 04m Chicago ORD 08:54 → MIA 13:08AA 1250 7h 03m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:59 → LGA 09:06DL 5652 · flown by Republic 2h 09m New York LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538 7h 25m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 7h 21m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SDF 17:17 → ORD 18:02AA 4668 · flown by Republic 1h 24m Chicago ORD 19:26 → MIA 23:38AA 1159 6h 21m 65% 37%
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:09 → LGA 16:30DL 5637 · flown by Republic 57m New York LGA 17:27 → MIA 20:19DL 1620 6h 10m 63% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON