Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: 9E 4973 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day 9E 4973 SDF 06:26 → MSP 07:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4007 SDF 16:29 → MSP 17:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 4973 Endeavor	SDF 06:26	MSP 07:43	9%	5%	1.2%	no record
9E 4972 Endeavor	SDF 12:36	MSP 13:58	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
9E 4965 Endeavor	SDF 19:51	MSP 21:09	17%	8%	1.8%	no record
DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 16:29	MSP 17:40	24%	10%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON