Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3507 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–52%.

Safest bet that day YX 3507 SDF 05:07 → ORD 05:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4610 SDF 18:13 → ORD 18:49 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3507 Republic	SDF 05:07	ORD 05:51	8%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:05	ORD 06:50	9%	5%	1.5%	93%
UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:51	ORD 07:36	14%	5%	1.5%	90%
YX 4492 Republic	SDF 10:14	ORD 10:59	17%	6%	1.8%	no record
UA 3520 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 10:21	ORD 11:06	18%	6%	1.7%	100%worse than usual
YX 3477 Republic	SDF 09:09	ORD 09:53	26%	7%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	SDF 12:50	ORD 13:19	39%	17%	2.9%	no record
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 17:17	ORD 18:02	45%	20%	5.1%	79%worse than usual
OO 5834 SkyWest	SDF 13:51	ORD 14:28	45%	27%	5.3%	no record
G7 4610 GoJet	SDF 18:13	ORD 18:49	52%	18%	5.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON