Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4750 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4750 SDF 06:44 → PHL 08:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OH 5255 SDF 16:53 → PHL 18:58 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4750 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:44	PHL 08:53	6%	2%	1.1%	92%
PT 6055 Piedmont	SDF 12:42	PHL 14:51	17%	6%	1.3%	no record
OH 5255 PSA	SDF 16:53	PHL 18:58	23%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON