Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:51, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 463 Alaska	SEA 13:23	CMH 20:40	32%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:25 → ATL 08:15DL 652	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → CMH 12:25DL 1522	9h 00m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:17 → MSP 05:35DL 953	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772	6h 45m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:36 → CMH 18:14DL 2786	9h 14m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 10:29 → DTW 17:38DL 2324	2h 16m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	7h 33m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:00 → ATL 16:53DL 560	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 20:41 → CMH 22:18DL 1501	10h 18m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:38 → CMH 00:16 +1DL 1459	9h 17m	97%	80%
American Details →	SEA 00:23 → DFW 06:16AA 2003	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:18 → CMH 12:39AA 1279	9h 16m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CMH 22:52DL 2230	8h 43m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 11:51 → DTW 19:04DL 1706	50m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	6h 11m	66%	55%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:09 → JFK 20:11DL 415	1h 04m New York	JFK 21:15 → CMH 23:31DL 5658 · flown by Republic	8h 22m	73%	43%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	50m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → CMH 20:20UA 1278	6h 28m	52%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON