Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1061 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1061 SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 96 SEA 12:00 → FAI 14:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:45	FAI 13:42	20%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 2186 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:41	FAI 00:30	21%	4%	0.9%	79%
AS 284 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:43	FAI 21:28	28%	4%	0.7%	75%
AS 351 Alaska	SEA 22:42	FAI 01:28	30%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 441 Alaska	SEA 09:54	FAI 12:33	30%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 96 Alaska	SEA 12:00	FAI 14:39	30%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON