Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 351 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 351 SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 626 SEA 10:55 → HNL 14:04 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 351 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	HNL 11:34	21%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:35	HNL 19:28	25%	6%	0.6%	74%
AS 821 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:09	HNL 09:59	30%	5%	0.9%	72%
AS 451 Alaska	SEA 19:02	HNL 21:36	36%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 268 Alaska	SEA 20:47	HNL 23:21	37%	9%	0.9%	no record
AS 899 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:35	HNL 15:10	41%	8%	0.9%	53%
AS 121 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:23	HNL 16:04	41%	7%	0.9%	70%worse than usual
AS 853 Alaska	SEA 09:11	HNL 12:02	41%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 626 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:55	HNL 14:04	42%	9%	0.9%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	1h 14m Kahului	OGG 14:33 → HNL 15:26AS 1135	8h 11m	90%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON