Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2702 at 00:08 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2702 SEA 00:08 → IAH 06:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 438 SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2702 United	SEA 00:08	IAH 06:20	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1660 United Flight history →	SEA 17:00	IAH 23:26	23%	7%	0.8%	84%
UA 1752 United	SEA 12:29	IAH 18:44	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2135 United Flight history →	SEA 11:25	IAH 17:40	26%	7%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AS 240 Alaska	SEA 17:34	IAH 23:43	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 438 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:52	IAH 17:16	38%	8%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	58m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:28 → IAH 13:26DL 1532	5h 56m	94%	75%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:59 → IAH 13:07AA 1397	6h 02m	89%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON