tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 09:06, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → SEA 09:06 ICT 14:38 16% 6% 1.1% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:25 → ATL 08:15DL 652 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → ICT 12:23DL 828 9h 58m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:23 → DFW 06:16AA 2003 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ICT 10:55AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 8h 32m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 12m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → SEA 12:29 → DFW 18:36AA 767 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:26 → ICT 23:53AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 9h 24m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → ICT 13:49AA 3479 · flown by Envoy 6h 44m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 13:30 → ICT 15:10DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:19 → ICT 18:38DL 2128 10h 38m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:33 → DEN 18:22UA 333 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:09 → ICT 23:44UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest 7h 11m 97% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON