Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 624 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:39	IND 05:44	23%	5%	0.7%	79%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:44	IND 16:48	23%	5%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:25 → ATL 08:15DL 652	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → IND 13:32DL 3013	10h 07m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:17 → MSP 05:35DL 953	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	8h 11m	100%	89%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 00m Denver	DEN 10:43 → IND 15:15UA 1522	7h 15m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	9h 42m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 28m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228	8h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:00 → ATL 16:53DL 560	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → IND 22:08DL 1482	10h 08m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:57 → IND 17:35DL 2979	8h 35m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 18:06 → IND 20:24UA 3628 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	71%	52%
American Details →	SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → IND 17:20AA 3312	6h 54m	63%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON