Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 340 SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AS 709 SEA 09:58 → KOA 12:51 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 340 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	KOA 17:35	20%	6%	0.8%	78%
AS 238 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:49	KOA 20:38	26%	5%	0.8%	77%
AS 709 Alaska	SEA 09:58	KOA 12:51	27%	4%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 07:09 → HNL 10:00AS 821	1h 34m Honolulu	HNL 11:34 → KOA 12:36AS 1098	8h 27m	90%	70%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:23 → HNL 16:05AS 121	1h 25m Honolulu	HNL 17:30 → KOA 18:16AS 1158	7h 53m	84%	65%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:10 → HNL 14:58AS 899	1h 28m Honolulu	HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:29AS 9950	8h 19m	82%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON