Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 345 at 15:50 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 345 SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 258 SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 345 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:50	LIH 18:58	20%	7%	0.8%	76%
AS 237 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:13	LIH 21:25	26%	6%	0.7%	76%
AS 258 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:28	LIH 14:40	35%	7%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:07 → HNL 12:48AS 626	2h 29m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:11AS 1113	9h 04m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:10 → HNL 14:58AS 899	2h 16m Honolulu	HNL 17:14 → LIH 18:08AS 1143	8h 58m	92%	69%
Alaska Details →	SEA 07:09 → HNL 10:00AS 821	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 11:19 → LIH 12:13AS 1073	8h 04m	86%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON