Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3759 at 00:09, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3759 Southwest	SEA 00:09	MDW 06:12	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:17 → MSP 05:35DL 953	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 07:30 → MDW 09:11DL 4712 · flown by Endeavor	6h 54m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:25 → ATL 08:15DL 652	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	9h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	8h 15m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 21:44 → MDW 22:47DL 1076	8h 48m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON