Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1114 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1114 SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 442 SEA 09:35 → PHL 17:26 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1114 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	PHL 05:29	21%	5%	1.0%	85%
AS 371 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:29	PHL 05:30	28%	5%	0.9%	90%worse than usual
AA 986 American	SEA 08:31	PHL 16:52	29%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2886 American Flight history →	SEA 22:49	PHL 07:03	30%	6%	1.3%	88%worse than usual
AA 2870 American Flight history →	SEA 12:56	PHL 21:20	33%	10%	0.9%	70%
AS 442 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:35	PHL 17:26	33%	6%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON