Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 647 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:56	STL 15:32	23%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 618 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:01	STL 23:48	24%	5%	0.6%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:17 → MSP 05:35DL 953	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 09:02 → STL 10:39DL 1289	8h 22m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:25 → ATL 08:15DL 652	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:09 → STL 11:00DL 1400	8h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	6h 03m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 15:12 → STL 16:51DL 1224	8h 46m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:46 → STL 17:41DL 1492	8h 26m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	9h 54m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:11 → DTW 13:23DL 812	3h 22m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	9h 13m	99%	76%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652	5h 42m	85%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 14:49 → DFW 20:55AA 717	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:01 → STL 23:57AA 1445	7h 08m	70%	44%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:24 → STL 19:18AA 2761	6h 56m	63%	39%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	47m Chicago	ORD 17:52 → STL 18:48UA 4518 · flown by GoJet	5h 56m	46%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON