Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 08:56, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


QX 2328 Horizon	SEA 11:50	TUL 17:36	22%	5%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:25 → ATL 08:15DL 652	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	9h 31m	99%	86%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 21m Denver	DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → TUL 00:00 +1DL 2043	10h 01m	97%	80%
American Details →	SEA 00:23 → DFW 06:16AA 2003	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:26 → TUL 09:44AA 2348	7h 21m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186	7h 53m	93%	75%
United Details →	SEA 14:33 → DEN 18:22UA 333	2h 33m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	97%	71%
United Details →	SEA 11:25 → IAH 17:40UA 2135	2h 26m Houston	IAH 20:06 → TUL 21:59UA 1927	8h 34m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	8h 44m	92%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	55m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	74%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON