Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4979 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 4979 FLL 06:34 → MDW 08:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2206 FLL 12:11 → ORD 14:38 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4979 Southwest	FLL 06:34	MDW 08:49	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 2809 United	FLL 07:03	ORD 09:27	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2491 American	MIA 06:30	ORD 08:52	11%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	11%	4%	1.7%	87%
AA 3169 American	FLL 06:57	ORD 09:21	11%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 1431 American Flight history →	MIA 08:29	ORD 11:00	12%	6%	1.2%	90%
WN 3039 Southwest	MIA 06:39	MDW 08:52	13%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	ORD 00:26	26%	11%	0.9%	79%
WN 1927 Southwest	FLL 12:54	MDW 15:10	27%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 2634 American Flight history →	MIA 21:10	ORD 23:31	29%	13%	1.0%	70%
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	31%	16%	1.7%	87%worse than usual
AA 835 American	MIA 12:55	ORD 15:18	33%	20%	2.5%	no record
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	33%	19%	1.5%	82%worse than usual
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 18:05	ORD 20:33	37%	16%	2.0%	66%
AA 1461 American	FLL 13:13	ORD 15:29	38%	16%	2.1%	no record
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	38%	20%	1.5%	52%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	41%	18%	1.5%	59%
WN 1928 Southwest	FLL 18:24	MDW 20:39	41%	10%	1.9%	no record
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 18:51	ORD 21:17	41%	18%	2.1%	62%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 15:41	ORD 18:15	41%	21%	2.1%	60%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 17:04	ORD 19:28	42%	23%	2.4%	49%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	45%	25%	3.5%	48%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	46%	22%	2.6%	71%worse than usual
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:11	ORD 14:38	49%	21%	2.8%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON