Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Portland, leaving 12:08, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50AS 235	3h 56m Portland	PDX 17:46 → ANC 20:32AS 1455	9h 24m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 28m Portland	PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775	7h 02m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 11:08 → ANC 13:52DL 922	8h 57m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Seattle	SEA 21:46 → ANC 00:35 +1DL 936	8h 06m	95%	72%
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:59 → SEA 12:58AS 580	3h 51m Seattle	SEA 16:49 → ANC 19:26AS 85	9h 27m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:40 → SEA 17:39AS 630	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 20:53 → ANC 23:36AS 711	8h 56m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:45 → SEA 15:44AS 656	3h 17m Seattle	SEA 19:01 → ANC 21:43AS 582	8h 58m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	SFO 16:18 → SEA 18:18AS 68	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 21:59 → ANC 00:42 +1AS 1471	9h 24m	98%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 18:46 → PDX 20:31AS 525	58m Portland	PDX 21:29 → ANC 00:35 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	6h 49m	59%	48%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:45 → SEA 15:44AS 656	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 16:49 → ANC 19:26AS 85	6h 41m	55%	39%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:51 → SEA 19:59AS 1340	54m Seattle	SEA 20:53 → ANC 23:36AS 711	6h 45m	52%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON