tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, UA 5711 at 16:25, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:25 ASE 19:55 28% 13% 2.8% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 17:50 → ASE 21:17UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 8h 02m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 02m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 3h 20m Denver DEN 11:55 → ASE 12:55UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest 6h 55m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 2h 52m Denver DEN 21:03 → ASE 22:13UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 59m Denver DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 60% 43%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 50m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 51% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON