Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6027 SFO 20:59 → BOI 23:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest UA 2364 SFO 12:52 → BOI 15:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6027 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	BOI 23:55	21%	10%	0.5%	63%
AS 3375 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:29	BOI 21:17	27%	10%	0.5%	77%
UA 5720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:37	BOI 19:25	29%	11%	0.5%	74%
UA 2364 United	SFO 12:52	BOI 15:36	30%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON