tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2097 United Flight history → SFO 23:08 CLE 06:59 19% 8% 0.7% 52%
UA 2603 United SFO 10:42 CLE 18:34 22% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 36m Denver DEN 10:11 → CLE 15:12UA 619 7h 12m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:59UA 505 1h 21m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 8h 09m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 07:09 → CLE 10:07DL 1083 6h 32m 91% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 2h 27m Los Angeles LAX 16:22 → CLE 23:53UA 2756 8h 38m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 36m Dulles IAD 22:47 → CLE 00:15 +1UA 2131 10h 25m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:21 → DTW 13:56DL 772 3h 51m Detroit DTW 17:47 → CLE 18:48DL 4954 · flown by Endeavor 9h 27m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:36 → MSP 12:15DL 2178 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → CLE 18:33DL 1118 8h 57m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11UA 686 2h 26m Houston IAH 15:37 → CLE 19:17UA 1934 9h 12m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 47m Los Angeles LAX 16:22 → CLE 23:53UA 2756 6h 58m 63% 51%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:50 → IAD 21:57UA 1791 50m Dulles IAD 22:47 → CLE 00:15 +1UA 2131 7h 25m 60% 49%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:30 → JFK 20:19DL 668 55m New York JFK 21:14 → CLE 22:58DL 4946 · flown by Endeavor 8h 28m 59% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON