Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 517 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 517 SFO 06:05 → EWR 14:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:11 → EWR 21:31 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 517 United	SFO 06:05	EWR 14:57	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	12%	4%	1.3%	91%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 00:04	EWR 08:23	15%	3%	1.1%	83%
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:01	EWR 08:07	16%	3%	1.1%	75%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	21%	8%	1.6%	84%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	22%	7%	1.4%	83%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	30%	15%	1.4%	67%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	32%	14%	1.4%	70%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	40%	18%	1.5%	57%
UA 2467 United	SFO 10:26	EWR 19:00	40%	16%	1.5%	no record
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:45	EWR 20:11	42%	19%	1.5%	76%worse than usual
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:11	EWR 21:31	46%	22%	1.5%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 14m	91%	81%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 32m Denver	DEN 10:07 → EWR 15:42UA 2381	7h 42m	98%	71%
United Details →	SFO 00:04 → RDU 08:10UA 2080	51m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 09:01 → EWR 10:48UA 1669	7h 44m	83%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON