Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 638 SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 833 SFO 19:47 → HNL 22:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 638 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	HNL 21:43	17%	6%	0.6%	88%
UA 1175 United Flight history →	SFO 09:20	HNL 11:43	17%	5%	0.6%	93%
UA 1509 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	HNL 19:25	19%	7%	0.6%	85%
UA 300 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	HNL 16:18	20%	7%	0.6%	84%
AS 811 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:51	HNL 10:26	21%	5%	1.5%	68%
UA 2380 United Flight history →	SFO 10:45	HNL 13:20	24%	9%	0.6%	78%
AS 833 Alaska	SFO 19:47	HNL 22:14	25%	8%	1.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 09:58 → OGG 12:24AS 979	1h 43m Kahului	OGG 14:07 → HNL 14:59AS 1425	8h 01m	93%	71%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34AS 693	54m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:29AS 1057	7h 29m	91%	68%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43AS 789	1h 17m Lihue	LIH 11:00 → HNL 11:52AS 1064	7h 49m	90%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON