Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AS 693 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day AS 693 SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 222 SFO 14:15 → KOA 16:26 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 693 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:00	KOA 09:34	9%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1721 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	KOA 10:40	11%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 1723 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	KOA 21:46	15%	5%	0.5%	83%
AS 222 Alaska	SFO 14:15	KOA 16:26	27%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 09:58 → OGG 12:24AS 979	1h 39m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	7h 41m	93%	73%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:51 → HNL 10:26AS 811	1h 08m Honolulu	HNL 11:34 → KOA 12:35AS 1098	7h 44m	86%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON