tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1515 United Flight history → SFO 16:29 MCI 22:15 25% 10% 0.6% 50%
UA 2072 United SFO 11:01 MCI 16:33 26% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 09:55 → MCI 11:26DL 1349 8h 51m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → MCI 14:46DL 2882 6h 56m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 5h 30m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:59UA 505 2h 04m Houston IAH 08:03 → MCI 10:23UA 2009 8h 18m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:36 → MSP 12:15DL 2178 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 38m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 3h 12m Portland PDX 12:14 → MCI 17:35AS 225 8h 15m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:59 → DFW 13:32AA 304 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:09 → MCI 18:54AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 8h 55m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 +1DL 2993 5h 06m 63% 51%
FrontierDetails → SFO 12:04 → DEN 15:30F9 1094 1h 20m Denver DEN 16:50 → MCI 19:43F9 3376 5h 39m 69% 40%
FrontierDetails → SFO 14:21 → LAS 16:06F9 2486 49m Las Vegas LAS 16:55 → MCI 21:51F9 4506 5h 30m 43% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON