Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1331 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1331 SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OO 5908 SFO 11:56 → SLC 14:47 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1331 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:50	SLC 08:40	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 5753 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:54	SLC 23:59	17%	11%	0.7%	66%
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:55	SLC 12:44	17%	4%	0.7%	78%
OO 6085 SkyWest	SFO 09:33	SLC 12:25	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1552 United	SFO 18:35	SLC 21:39	24%	12%	0.6%	no record
DL 670 Delta	SFO 19:22	SLC 22:13	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 520 United	SFO 14:10	SLC 17:16	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:07	SLC 20:00	27%	9%	0.7%	71%
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:24	SLC 16:13	28%	7%	0.7%	71%
OO 5908 SkyWest	SFO 11:56	SLC 14:47	31%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON