tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1905 United SFO 12:55 STL 18:51 29% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 3257 Southwest SFO 13:04 STL 18:57 39% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 09:02 → STL 10:39DL 1289 8h 04m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:59UA 505 2h 06m Houston IAH 08:05 → STL 10:27UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 8h 22m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 43m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:36 → MSP 12:15DL 2178 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:12 → STL 16:51DL 1224 8h 15m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 10h 15m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:21 → DTW 13:56DL 772 2h 49m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 03m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:23 → DFW 05:55AA 2111 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:23 → STL 09:18AA 3333 6h 55m 92% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 +1DL 2666 5h 34m 63% 52%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 11m Chicago ORD 19:46 → STL 21:08UA 1625 7h 08m 65% 44%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:54 → STL 22:49AA 1010 6h 46m 65% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON