Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5532 SGF 06:15 → IAH 08:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4671 SGF 15:11 → IAH 17:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5532 SkyWest	SGF 06:15	IAH 08:17	18%	11%	1.6%	no record
OO 5767 SkyWest	SGF 09:12	IAH 11:21	22%	12%	1.1%	no record
G7 4617 GoJet	SGF 16:50	IAH 18:49	26%	7%	1.4%	no record
OO 4671 SkyWest	SGF 15:11	IAH 17:26	28%	13%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON