Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 6321 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day OO 6321 SHV 06:02 → DFW 07:17 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6464 SHV 20:47 → DFW 21:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6321 SkyWest	SHV 06:02	DFW 07:17	15%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 09:56	DFW 11:05	20%	4%	1.3%	92%worse than usual
AA 5649 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SHV 14:30	DFW 15:50	27%	11%	1.7%	91%worse than usual
OO 6347 SkyWest	SHV 11:59	DFW 13:12	27%	13%	1.3%	no record
OO 6341 SkyWest	SHV 08:24	DFW 09:51	28%	12%	1.3%	no record
OO 6464 SkyWest	SHV 20:47	DFW 21:59	30%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON