Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3534 at 11:42, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3534 Southwest	SJC 11:42	GEG 13:52	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 09:34 → PDX 11:38AS 2274 · flown by Horizon	2h 48m Portland	PDX 14:26 → GEG 15:38AS 743	6h 04m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:33 → SEA 16:44DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → GEG 17:12DL 1503	7h 27m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:43 → GEG 23:29DL 1466	6h 28m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:35 → SEA 15:05DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → GEG 12:47DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	97%	74%
American Details →	SJC 06:04 → PHX 08:24AA 1358	2h 38m Phoenix	PHX 11:02 → GEG 14:03AA 540	7h 59m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 08:32 → SEA 10:52AS 1304	57m Seattle	SEA 11:49 → GEG 12:58AS 454	4h 26m	67%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON