tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 838 Alaska SJC 06:58 HNL 09:36 17% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2739 Southwest SJC 13:50 HNL 16:32 20% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 9h 23m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 19m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953 2h 00m Kahului OGG 11:21 → HNL 12:15AS 1085 8h 15m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Seattle SEA 16:36 → HNL 19:30DL 419 10h 55m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:05 → PHX 08:22AA 1358 1h 48m Phoenix PHX 10:10 → HNL 14:08AA 693 11h 03m 94% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:46 → SEA 18:51AS 521 1h 56m Seattle SEA 20:47 → HNL 23:22AS 268 9h 36m 98% 61%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:25 → SEA 08:38AS 762 3h 32m Seattle SEA 12:10 → HNL 14:58AS 899 11h 33m 100% 58%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:52 → SEA 09:56AS 1304 3h 27m Seattle SEA 13:23 → HNL 16:05AS 121 11h 13m 99% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 53m Seattle SEA 13:23 → HNL 16:05AS 121 8h 46m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON