Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	1h 10m Kahului	OGG 10:31 → KOA 11:24AS 1030	7h 24m	94%	81%
American Details →	SJC 06:05 → PHX 08:22AA 1358	2h 18m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	11h 01m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:25 → SEA 08:38AS 762	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → KOA 12:51AS 709	9h 26m	89%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON