Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Seattle, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 23m	95%	75%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	2h 55m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 06m	98%	73%
American Details →	SJC 06:05 → PHX 08:22AA 1358	2h 27m Phoenix	PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697	11h 31m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:25 → SEA 08:38AS 762	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 15m	100%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON