Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4157 at 07:44, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4157 Southwest	SJC 07:44	RNO 08:51	2%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 09m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	6h 46m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:34 → PDX 11:38AS 2274 · flown by Horizon	3h 03m Portland	PDX 14:41 → RNO 16:21AS 2087 · flown by Horizon	6h 47m	100%	79%
American Details →	SJC 06:04 → PHX 08:24AA 1358	1h 47m Phoenix	PHX 10:11 → RNO 12:27AA 1437	6h 23m	95%	74%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:25 → SEA 08:37AS 762	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 12:22 → RNO 14:05AS 601	7h 40m	100%	72%
Frontier Details →	SJC 13:26 → LAS 15:09F9 1590	1h 46m Las Vegas	LAS 16:55 → RNO 18:29F9 4241	5h 03m	86%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON