Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3786 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3786 SJC 06:01 → SEA 08:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 745 SJC 20:42 → SEA 22:48 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3786 Southwest	SJC 06:01	SEA 08:15	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	11%	4%	0.6%	95%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 12:35	SEA 15:06	13%	5%	0.5%	92%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:59	SEA 23:23	14%	6%	0.6%	88%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:33	SEA 16:44	18%	5%	0.5%	85%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:55	SEA 20:13	19%	6%	0.6%	87%
AS 762 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 06:25	SEA 08:37	21%	3%	0.8%	78%
WN 1594 Southwest	SJC 13:04	SEA 15:12	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	26%	4%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AS 659 Alaska	SJC 13:27	SEA 15:37	27%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1386 Southwest	SJC 20:27	SEA 22:39	28%	10%	0.5%	no record
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 16:46	SEA 18:50	29%	6%	0.7%	73%
AS 1304 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:32	SEA 10:52	29%	4%	0.7%	79%
AS 745 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 20:42	SEA 22:48	31%	6%	0.7%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON