tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: B6 276 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 276 JetBlue Flight history → SJU 08:23 BDL 12:53 20% 7% 1.0% 62%
F9 3937 Frontier Flight history → SJU 15:55 BDL 21:51 37% 15% 1.3% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:00 → ATL 10:58DL 1763 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 9h 16m 99% 80%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 04:56 → MCO 08:05B6 234 2h 29m Orlando MCO 10:34 → BDL 13:24B6 438 8h 28m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 29m Dulles IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59UA 444 7h 04m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 9h 12m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:56 → ATL 16:53DL 1930 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → BDL 22:08DL 2765 9h 12m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 21:34 → BDL 23:46AA 2763 8h 06m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → SJU 12:35 → CLT 16:18AA 3187 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 19:22 → BDL 21:23AA 3280 8h 48m 95% 64%
FrontierDetails → SJU 06:55 → MCO 10:10F9 2981 1h 21m Orlando MCO 11:31 → BDL 14:24F9 1684 7h 29m 88% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 16:26 → FLL 19:13B6 154 55m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:08 → BDL 23:16B6 460 6h 50m 58% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON