Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3859 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3859 SJU 06:29 → MCO 09:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1745 SJU 15:50 → MCO 19:04 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3859 Southwest	SJU 06:29	MCO 09:34	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4962 Southwest	SJU 04:59	MCO 08:04	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3860 Southwest	SJU 10:09	MCO 13:14	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 3861 Southwest	SJU 12:34	MCO 15:39	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 04:56	MCO 08:05	15%	7%	1.2%	83%
WN 3864 Southwest	SJU 22:43	MCO 01:44	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4676 Southwest	SJU 20:49	MCO 23:53	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 2981 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:55	MCO 10:10	16%	6%	1.8%	87%
WN 4960 Southwest	SJU 16:26	MCO 19:28	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:25	MCO 11:34	18%	6%	1.1%	70%
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:10	MCO 14:19	22%	9%	1.2%	73%
F9 2867 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:37	MCO 13:52	23%	7%	2.0%	88%worse than usual
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	25%	7%	2.0%	81%
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:58	MCO 18:05	28%	12%	1.4%	81%
B6 2134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:40	MCO 21:48	30%	12%	1.2%	63%
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:37	MCO 21:50	31%	9%	1.9%	86%worse than usual
F9 1745 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:50	MCO 19:04	34%	10%	1.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON