Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 907 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 907 SLC 06:33 → ATL 12:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 906 SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 907 Delta Flight history →	SLC 06:33	ATL 12:18	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 897 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:10	ATL 13:54	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 8806 Delta	SLC 22:31	ATL 04:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 912 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:35	ATL 05:14	15%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 905 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:55	ATL 23:58	16%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 835 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:55	ATL 15:39	16%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 875 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:31	ATL 21:25	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 885 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:27	ATL 17:15	20%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 906 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:35	ATL 19:22	21%	6%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON