Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4105 at 15:02, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4105 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:02	EUG 16:02	10%	4%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	3h 23m Seattle	SEA 16:12 → EUG 17:39DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	99%	82%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 09m Denver	DEN 11:51 → EUG 13:37UA 318	7h 37m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SLC 19:35 → PDX 20:39AS 3308 · flown by SkyWest	49m Portland	PDX 21:28 → EUG 22:28AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m	74%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON