Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4246 at 11:24, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4246 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 11:24	GJT 12:41	8%	3%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → GJT 10:44UA 4704 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	99%	84%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 25m Denver	DEN 12:07 → GJT 13:15UA 1714	6h 15m	99%	83%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	99%	79%
United Details →	SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662	3h 14m Denver	DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431	6h 06m	95%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON