Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1909 at 00:04 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1909 SLC 00:04 → JFK 06:17 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 671 SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1909 Delta	SLC 00:04	JFK 06:17	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1792 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:59	JFK 16:47	25%	10%	1.6%	84%
B6 372 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 00:11	JFK 06:14	25%	8%	1.3%	79%
DL 697 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	JFK 23:47	29%	12%	1.8%	82%worse than usual
DL 671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:35	JFK 21:25	33%	16%	1.5%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON