Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1355 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1355 SLC 07:21 → LGB 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3883 SLC 18:54 → LGB 19:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1355 Southwest	SLC 07:21	LGB 08:20	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3793 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:05	LGB 16:06	12%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 1167 Delta	SLC 20:43	LGB 21:43	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:05	LGB 11:59	14%	4%	0.8%	90%
WN 3883 Southwest	SLC 18:54	LGB 19:56	19%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON