tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 2515 at 13:19, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2515 Delta Flight history → SLC 13:19 MEM 17:24 17% 4% 0.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Denver DEN 10:44 → MEM 14:06UA 2789 7h 51m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:33 → ATL 12:18DL 907 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:13DL 733 6h 40m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501 8h 49m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:27 → ATL 17:15DL 885 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:59DL 2939 8h 32m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:32 → MEM 14:13AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 8h 13m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497 2h 01m Houston IAH 19:13 → MEM 20:57UA 6167 · flown by Mesa 6h 57m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 1h 38m Los Angeles LAX 18:14 → MEM 23:59DL 1080 7h 19m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → MEM 17:11DL 1681 8h 01m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:05 → ORD 20:12UA 1963 1h 08m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 16m 73% 52%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 50m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 6h 11m 65% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON