tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 623 Delta Flight history → SLC 12:14 OGG 14:59 20% 6% 0.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 10h 29m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 12:52 → SFO 14:01UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 10h 25m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:40 → PDX 13:45AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Portland PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353 12h 00m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 2h 10m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 10h 21m 95% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 14:56 → SEA 15:56AS 734 3h 03m Seattle SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202 11h 11m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 07:40 → SAN 08:50AS 3018 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m San Diego SAN 11:49 → OGG 14:41AS 232 11h 01m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 10:01 → SEA 11:03AS 719 2h 50m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 10h 58m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON